Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Alfonsin Rosario

CLE · AAA · RF · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score68.3#246 Overall
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Performance53Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Ceiling71High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
53Developing performance profile
Power.230 ISOAbove-average game power
Contact34.7% KContact risk
On-base foundation.313 OBPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Hit40
Power55
Run55
Field50
Arm70

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh95How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh12Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection33.9
Projected Range17–51
Arrival Probability74%
Productive Role Probability13%
Player Background
OrganizationCleveland Guardians
LevelAAA
PositionRF
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 58 Latest recorded 65
71 62 53 2026-09-02 · Median 58 2026-09-03 · Median 57 2026-09-05 · Median 57 2026-09-06 · Median 57 2026-09-09 · Median 67 2026-09-14 · Median 66.8 2026-09-15 · Median 67 2026-09-16 · Median 67 2026-09-17 · Median 66 2026-09-18 · Median 66 2026-09-19 · Median 66 2026-09-21 · Median 65 2026-09-22 · Median 65 2026-09-24 · Median 65 2026-09-25 · Median 65 2026-09-29 · Median 65 2026-09-30 · Median 65 2026-10-03 · Median 65 2026-10-04 · Median 65 2026-10-05 · Median 65 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 65

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0565
2026-10-0465
2026-10-0365
2026-09-3065
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2026-09-1466.8
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2026-09-0657
2026-09-0557
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2026-09-0258