Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Allan Castro

BOS · AAA · CF · Age 23

Bats S · Throws R
Prospect Score67.0#291 Overall
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Performance54Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor58Lower-end outcome
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Ceiling67High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
54Developing performance profile
Offensive impact.722 OPSBalanced offensive output
Contact18.2% KStrong contact signal
Approach10.1% BBNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit45
Power40
Run50
Field50
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh95How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection42.1
Projected Range25–59
Arrival Probability74%
Productive Role Probability11%
Player Background
OrganizationBoston Red Sox
LevelAAA
PositionCF
BatsS
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 59 Latest recorded 62
67 60.5 54 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 58 2026-09-05 · Median 58 2026-09-06 · Median 58 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 60.4 2026-09-15 · Median 60 2026-09-16 · Median 60 2026-09-17 · Median 62 2026-09-18 · Median 62 2026-09-19 · Median 63 2026-09-21 · Median 63 2026-09-22 · Median 63 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-09-29 · Median 62 2026-09-30 · Median 62 2026-10-03 · Median 62 2026-10-04 · Median 62 2026-10-05 · Median 62 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 62

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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