Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Angel Roa

BOS · DSL · P

Boston Red Sox · Age at assessment: 17.5 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#1,898
Prospect Score48.5
Median48
Performance Signal+12.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
364859
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +12.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 48
52 47 42 2026-08-14 · Median 46 2026-08-16 · Median 47 2026-08-17 · Median 47 2026-08-18 · Median 47 2026-08-19 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46.6 2026-08-25 · Median 46.6 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 47 2026-09-01 · Median 47 2026-09-02 · Median 47 2026-09-03 · Median 47 2026-09-05 · Median 47 2026-09-06 · Median 47 2026-09-09 · Median 48 2026-09-14 · Median 47.5 2026-09-15 · Median 48 2026-09-16 · Median 48 2026-09-17 · Median 48 2026-09-18 · Median 48 2026-09-19 · Median 48 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 48

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1948
2026-09-1848
2026-09-1748
2026-09-1648
2026-09-1548
2026-09-1447.5
2026-09-0948
2026-09-0647
2026-09-0547
2026-09-0347
2026-09-0247
2026-09-0147
2026-08-2847
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2546.6
2026-08-2346.6
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1947
2026-08-1847
2026-08-1747
2026-08-1647
2026-08-1446

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 42
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 47
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
364859
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +12.1

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 47
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence42
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection54.7
Projected range30–80
Arrival probability1%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.