Arjun Nimmala
Player Assessment
Current model readArjun Nimmala's current production is forcing the profile above its original scouting foundation. The 63 Performance Grade sits 8 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.
Prospect Score & Development
Solid composite evaluation
Baseline
Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.
Confidence
High confidence
Evidence strength, separate from model risk.
Performance context
Model-derived assessmentSolid current production
Scouting Profile
20–80 scouting scaleGrades updated 2026-09-24
Supporting Evidence and What to Watch
Current model assessmentSupporting Evidence
Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 75, with a modeled range from 57 to 78. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.
What to Watch
A promotion or sustained success against older competition is the next meaningful checkpoint. At AA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.
Model factors and risk context
Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.
Projected Outcome Range
These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.
Forecast
Statistical projectionsNo statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.
Development Trajectory
Recorded Baseline assessmentsLatest recorded Baseline: 75 on · Current Floor 57, Baseline 75, Ceiling 78
The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.
View recorded values
| Date | Baseline | Model version |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 75 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-09 | 75 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 75 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-07 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-05 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-04 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-03 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-30 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-29 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-22 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-21 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-19 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-18 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-17 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-16 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-15 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-14 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-09 | 74 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-06 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-05 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-03 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-02 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-01 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-28 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-27 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-25 | 72 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-08-23 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-22 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-20 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-19 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-18 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-17 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-16 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-14 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-13 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-11 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-10 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-09 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-08 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-07 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-03 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-01 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-31 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-30 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-29 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-28 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-27 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-26 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-25 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-24 | 72 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-23 | 71 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-22 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-21 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-16 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-14 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-12 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-11 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-09 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-07 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-05 | 59 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-03 | 58 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-01 | 63 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-30 | 63 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-29 | 63 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-28 | 63 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
Development Outlook
Upside and risk↑ Upside
The current Ceiling of 78 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.
⚑ Risk Factors
Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 93/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.
Verified league roster listing
The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.
Arizona Fall League · 2026
Verified roster listing: Mesa Solar Sox · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09
Prospect Score: 67.0 · Baseline: 75.0