Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Ashton Izzi

ARI · AAA · P · Age 23

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score69.3#214 Overall
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Performance54Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Ceiling70High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
54Developing performance profile
Miss ability7.8 K/9Near expected range
Command2.4 BB/9Above-average command
Contact management1.6 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball50
Slider55
Changeup45
Control50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh94How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection40.6
Projected Range18–63
Arrival Probability37%
Productive Role Probability4%
Player Background
OrganizationArizona Diamondbacks
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 57 Latest recorded 65
70 61.5 53 2026-09-02 · Median 57 2026-09-03 · Median 57 2026-09-05 · Median 57 2026-09-06 · Median 57 2026-09-09 · Median 65 2026-09-14 · Median 64.2 2026-09-15 · Median 64 2026-09-16 · Median 64 2026-09-17 · Median 64 2026-09-18 · Median 64 2026-09-19 · Median 64 2026-09-21 · Median 66 2026-09-22 · Median 66 2026-09-24 · Median 65 2026-09-25 · Median 65 2026-09-29 · Median 65 2026-09-30 · Median 65 2026-10-03 · Median 65 2026-10-04 · Median 65 2026-10-05 · Median 65 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 65

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0565
2026-10-0465
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2026-09-0965
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2026-09-0257