Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Austin Cates

TOR · AA · P

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 23.4 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#940
Prospect Score56.8
Median52
Performance Signal-6.9
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
465259
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 50 Latest recorded 52
57 51.5 46 2026-08-14 · Median 50 2026-08-16 · Median 50 2026-08-17 · Median 50 2026-08-18 · Median 50 2026-08-19 · Median 51 2026-08-20 · Median 50 2026-08-22 · Median 50 2026-08-23 · Median 50.2 2026-08-25 · Median 50.2 2026-08-27 · Median 51 2026-08-28 · Median 51 2026-09-01 · Median 51 2026-09-02 · Median 51 2026-09-03 · Median 51 2026-09-05 · Median 51 2026-09-06 · Median 51 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 52.6 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 52 2026-09-30 · Median 52 2026-10-03 · Median 52 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 52

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0352
2026-09-3052
2026-09-2952
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1452.6
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0651
2026-09-0551
2026-09-0351
2026-09-0251
2026-09-0151
2026-08-2851
2026-08-2751
2026-08-2550.2
2026-08-2350.2
2026-08-2250
2026-08-2050
2026-08-1951
2026-08-1850
2026-08-1750
2026-08-1650
2026-08-1450

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
465259
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection45.3
Projected range23–68
Arrival probability32%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.