Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Bryan Balzer

SD · High-A · P

San Diego Padres · Age at assessment: 21.9 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#554
Prospect Score62
Median60
Performance47
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 55; dominance evidence sits near the 40th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 9.1

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-18.4 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 40
Command+7.4 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 57

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 50 Latest recorded 60
64 53 42 2026-06-04 · Median 50 2026-06-05 · Median 50 2026-06-06 · Median 50 2026-06-07 · Median 50 2026-06-08 · Median 50 2026-06-09 · Median 50 2026-06-10 · Median 50 2026-06-11 · Median 50 2026-06-12 · Median 48 2026-06-13 · Median 48 2026-06-14 · Median 48 2026-06-15 · Median 48 2026-06-16 · Median 48 2026-06-17 · Median 48 2026-06-18 · Median 48 2026-06-19 · Median 48 2026-06-20 · Median 48 2026-06-21 · Median 48 2026-06-22 · Median 46 2026-06-23 · Median 46 2026-06-24 · Median 46 2026-06-25 · Median 54 2026-06-26 · Median 54 2026-06-28 · Median 47 2026-06-29 · Median 47 2026-06-30 · Median 47 2026-07-01 · Median 47 2026-07-03 · Median 46 2026-07-05 · Median 46 2026-07-07 · Median 46 2026-07-09 · Median 46 2026-07-11 · Median 46 2026-07-12 · Median 46 2026-07-14 · Median 53 2026-07-16 · Median 53 2026-07-21 · Median 54 2026-07-22 · Median 54 2026-07-23 · Median 54 2026-07-24 · Median 54 2026-07-25 · Median 54 2026-07-26 · Median 55 2026-07-27 · Median 55 2026-07-28 · Median 55 2026-07-29 · Median 55 2026-07-30 · Median 55 2026-07-31 · Median 55 2026-08-01 · Median 55 2026-08-03 · Median 55 2026-08-05 · Median 55 2026-08-07 · Median 55 2026-08-08 · Median 51 2026-08-09 · Median 51 2026-08-10 · Median 51 2026-08-11 · Median 51 2026-08-13 · Median 51 2026-08-14 · Median 51 2026-08-16 · Median 54 2026-08-17 · Median 54 2026-08-18 · Median 54 2026-08-19 · Median 54 2026-08-20 · Median 54 2026-08-22 · Median 54 2026-08-23 · Median 50.9 2026-08-25 · Median 50.9 2026-08-27 · Median 59 2026-08-28 · Median 59 2026-09-01 · Median 59 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 60 2026-09-14 · Median 59.8 2026-09-15 · Median 60 2026-09-16 · Median 60 2026-09-17 · Median 60 2026-09-18 · Median 60 2026-09-19 · Median 60 2026-09-21 · Median 60 2026-09-22 · Median 60 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2460
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2026-09-1960
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Metrics to follow

K/9 9.1

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 11.8%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.4

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G23
IP98.2
ERA4.74
WHIP1.39
K/99.1
BB/94.4
K-BB%11.8%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
556065
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 47

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence89
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production40.0
Historical 80% error band19–61
MLB arrival in 3 years16%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball55Avg
Slider icon
Slider55Avg
Splitter icon
Splitter45Fringe
Command icon
Control50Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderSplitterCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels017.112206.111852562.538.53
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Fort Wayne TinCapsHigh-A135.171110038.1352722327431.6210.10
2026Lake Elsinore StormSingle-A624.481211060.1543230721571.248.50
20262 teams · TotalAll levels754.742321098.289595210481001.399.12
2025Lake Elsinore StormSingle-A167.921613050.0614544328491.788.82
2024ACL PadresACL006.436207.08550371.579.00

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More San Diego Padres profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.