Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Bryce Conley

NYM · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#6,482
Score5.8
Baseline10
Signal-24.8
Trend+1.8
Floor20
Baseline10
Ceiling25
Confidence54 Risk47 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Bryce Conley

NYM · AA · P

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 32.1 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#6,482
Prospect Score5.8
Median10
Performance Signal-24.8
Trend+1.8

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+1.8
201025
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.8

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 7 Latest recorded 10
15 9 3 2026-07-29 · Median 7 2026-07-30 · Median 7 2026-07-31 · Median 7 2026-08-01 · Median 7 2026-08-20 · Median 7 2026-08-22 · Median 7 2026-08-23 · Median 7.3 2026-08-25 · Median 7.3 2026-08-27 · Median 7.3 2026-08-28 · Median 7.3 2026-09-01 · Median 7.3 2026-09-02 · Median 7.3 2026-09-03 · Median 7.3 2026-09-05 · Median 7.3 2026-09-06 · Median 7.3 2026-09-09 · Median 10 2026-09-14 · Median 10.2 2026-09-15 · Median 10.2 2026-09-16 · Median 10 2026-09-17 · Median 10 2026-09-18 · Median 10 2026-09-19 · Median 10 2026-09-21 · Median 10 2026-09-22 · Median 10 2026-09-24 · Median 10 2026-09-25 · Median 10 2026-09-29 · Median 10 2026-09-30 · Median 10 2026-10-03 · Median 10 2026-10-04 · Median 10 2026-07-29 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 10

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0410
2026-10-0310
2026-09-3010
2026-09-2910
2026-09-2510
2026-09-2410
2026-09-2210
2026-09-2110
2026-09-1910
2026-09-1810
2026-09-1710
2026-09-1610
2026-09-1510.2
2026-09-1410.2
2026-09-0910
2026-09-067.3
2026-09-057.3
2026-09-037.3
2026-09-027.3
2026-09-017.3
2026-08-287.3
2026-08-277.3
2026-08-257.3
2026-08-237.3
2026-08-227
2026-08-207
2026-08-017
2026-07-317
2026-07-307
2026-07-297

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Improving
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 54
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 47
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+1.8
201025
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.8

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 47
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence54
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection39.9
Projected range17–63
Arrival probability17%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.