Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Cade Obermueller

PHI · High-A · P

Philadelphia Phillies · Age at assessment: 23.2 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Command not yet translating

The verified command expectation is running ahead of current strike-throwing results. Walk rate is the clearest constraint

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#1,338
Prospect Score53
Median55
Performance42
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Command 50; command evidence sits near the 19th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 6.8

What could change the read

  • A 12.9 K/9 shows the stuff is still missing bats

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+8.3 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 75
Command-30.8 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 19

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 55
60 46.5 33 2026-06-04 · Median 41 2026-06-05 · Median 41 2026-06-06 · Median 41 2026-06-07 · Median 41 2026-06-08 · Median 41 2026-06-09 · Median 41 2026-06-10 · Median 41 2026-06-11 · Median 46 2026-06-12 · Median 46 2026-06-13 · Median 46 2026-06-14 · Median 46 2026-06-15 · Median 46 2026-06-16 · Median 46 2026-06-17 · Median 46 2026-06-18 · Median 46 2026-06-19 · Median 46 2026-06-20 · Median 46 2026-06-21 · Median 46 2026-06-22 · Median 46 2026-06-23 · Median 46 2026-06-24 · Median 46 2026-06-25 · Median 46 2026-06-26 · Median 46 2026-06-28 · Median 46 2026-06-29 · Median 46 2026-06-30 · Median 47 2026-07-01 · Median 47 2026-07-03 · Median 49 2026-07-05 · Median 47 2026-07-07 · Median 47 2026-07-09 · Median 47 2026-07-11 · Median 46 2026-07-12 · Median 46 2026-07-14 · Median 46 2026-07-16 · Median 46 2026-07-21 · Median 48 2026-07-22 · Median 48 2026-07-23 · Median 48 2026-07-24 · Median 48 2026-07-25 · Median 51 2026-07-26 · Median 51 2026-07-27 · Median 51 2026-07-28 · Median 51 2026-07-29 · Median 51 2026-07-30 · Median 51 2026-07-31 · Median 38 2026-08-01 · Median 38 2026-08-03 · Median 38 2026-08-05 · Median 37 2026-08-07 · Median 37 2026-08-08 · Median 37 2026-08-09 · Median 37 2026-08-10 · Median 37 2026-08-11 · Median 37 2026-08-13 · Median 37 2026-08-14 · Median 37 2026-08-16 · Median 38 2026-08-17 · Median 38 2026-08-18 · Median 38 2026-08-19 · Median 38 2026-08-20 · Median 44 2026-08-22 · Median 44 2026-08-23 · Median 43.8 2026-08-25 · Median 43.8 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 55 2026-09-14 · Median 55.3 2026-09-15 · Median 55 2026-09-16 · Median 55 2026-09-17 · Median 55 2026-09-18 · Median 55 2026-09-19 · Median 55 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-09-25 · Median 55 2026-06-04 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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Metrics to follow

BB/9 6.8

Primary strike-throwing checkpoint

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

WHIP 1.70

Tracks total traffic allowed

Definition

Walks and hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower is generally better

K-BB% 14.5%

Balances dominance against walks

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G18
IP58.0
ERA5.43
WHIP1.69
K/912.9
BB/96.8
K-BB%14.5%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
495561
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 42

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 34
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence88
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production46.6
Historical 80% error band22–71
MLB arrival in 3 years11%
Productive MLB role in 3 years2%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball55Avg
Slider icon
Slider60Above Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup45Fringe
Command icon
Control50Avg
Overall icon
Overall45Fringe

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Slider-Driven

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels0219.292204.25111011073.2113.50
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Jersey Shore BlueClawsHigh-A039.6777022.1202624326282.0611.28
2026Clearwater ThreshersSingle-A022.781111035.2341211418551.4613.88
20262 teams · TotalAll levels055.431818058.0543835744831.6912.88

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2025 Bowman Draft · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Philadelphia Phillies profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.