Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Cade Smith

NYY · AA · P

New York Yankees · Age at assessment: 24.5 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#928
Prospect Score56.9
Median55
Performance Signal-10.6
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
505560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -10.6

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 45 Latest recorded 55
60 50.5 41 2026-08-14 · Median 45 2026-08-16 · Median 46 2026-08-17 · Median 46 2026-08-18 · Median 46 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 46 2026-08-22 · Median 46 2026-08-23 · Median 47.1 2026-08-25 · Median 47.1 2026-08-27 · Median 55 2026-08-28 · Median 55 2026-09-01 · Median 55 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 55 2026-09-05 · Median 55 2026-09-06 · Median 55 2026-09-09 · Median 56 2026-09-14 · Median 55.5 2026-09-15 · Median 56 2026-09-16 · Median 56 2026-09-17 · Median 56 2026-09-18 · Median 56 2026-09-19 · Median 56 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-09-25 · Median 55 2026-09-29 · Median 55 2026-09-30 · Median 55 2026-10-03 · Median 55 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0355
2026-09-3055
2026-09-2955
2026-09-2555
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2255
2026-09-2155
2026-09-1956
2026-09-1856
2026-09-1756
2026-09-1656
2026-09-1556
2026-09-1455.5
2026-09-0956
2026-09-0655
2026-09-0555
2026-09-0355
2026-09-0255
2026-09-0155
2026-08-2855
2026-08-2755
2026-08-2547.1
2026-08-2347.1
2026-08-2246
2026-08-2046
2026-08-1946
2026-08-1846
2026-08-1746
2026-08-1646
2026-08-1445

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 88
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
505560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -10.6

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence88
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection43.1
Projected range20–66
Arrival probability23%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.