Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Caden Scarborough

TEX · High-A · P · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score71.9#152 Overall
Baseline68Most likely outcome
Performance59Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor63Lower-end outcome
Baseline68Most likely outcome
Ceiling73High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
59Solid current performance
Miss ability8.9 K/9Near expected range
Command2.8 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management0.7 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall55
Fastball60
Slider60
Changeup50
Control55

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh90How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection50.5
Projected Range26–75
Arrival Probability11%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationTexas Rangers
LevelHigh-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 64 Latest recorded 68
72 66 60 2026-09-02 · Median 64 2026-09-03 · Median 64 2026-09-05 · Median 64 2026-09-06 · Median 64 2026-09-09 · Median 67 2026-09-14 · Median 66.9 2026-09-15 · Median 67 2026-09-16 · Median 67 2026-09-17 · Median 67 2026-09-18 · Median 67 2026-09-19 · Median 67 2026-09-21 · Median 67 2026-09-22 · Median 67 2026-09-24 · Median 68 2026-09-25 · Median 68 2026-09-29 · Median 68 2026-09-30 · Median 68 2026-10-03 · Median 68 2026-10-04 · Median 68 2026-10-05 · Median 68 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 68

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0568
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2026-09-1466.9
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