Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Carlos Mateo

PIT · Single-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Lower confidence keeps the composite more conservative.

Rank#1,977
Score47.7
Baseline48
Signal+3.7
Trend0.0
Floor38
Baseline48
Ceiling58
Confidence48 Risk34 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Carlos Mateo

PIT · Single-A · P

Pittsburgh Pirates · Age at assessment: 20.9 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Lower confidence keeps the composite more conservative.

PB Rank#1,977
Prospect Score47.7
Median48
Performance Signal+3.7
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
384858
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.7

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 45 Latest recorded 48
52 45 38 2026-08-14 · Median 45 2026-08-16 · Median 45 2026-08-17 · Median 45 2026-08-18 · Median 45 2026-08-19 · Median 45 2026-08-20 · Median 45 2026-08-22 · Median 45 2026-08-23 · Median 45 2026-08-27 · Median 42 2026-08-28 · Median 42 2026-09-01 · Median 42 2026-09-02 · Median 42 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 48 2026-09-14 · Median 47.7 2026-09-15 · Median 48 2026-09-16 · Median 48 2026-09-17 · Median 48 2026-09-18 · Median 48 2026-09-19 · Median 48 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-10-04 · Median 48 2026-08-14 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 48

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0448
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1948
2026-09-1848
2026-09-1748
2026-09-1648
2026-09-1548
2026-09-1447.7
2026-09-0948
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0242
2026-09-0142
2026-08-2842
2026-08-2742
2026-08-2345
2026-08-2245
2026-08-2045
2026-08-1945
2026-08-1845
2026-08-1745
2026-08-1645
2026-08-1445

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 48
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 34
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
384858
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.7

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 34
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence48
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection40.2
Projected range15–65
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.