Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Carson Montgomery

SD · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,849
Score48.7
Baseline44
Signal-18.5
Trend+0.2
Floor39
Baseline44
Ceiling48
Confidence90 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Carson Montgomery

SD · AA · P

San Diego Padres · Age at assessment: 24.1 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,849
Prospect Score48.7
Median44
Performance Signal-18.5
Trend+0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.2
394448
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -18.5

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 39 Latest recorded 44
49 41.5 34 2026-08-16 · Median 39 2026-08-17 · Median 39 2026-08-18 · Median 39 2026-08-19 · Median 39 2026-08-20 · Median 39 2026-08-22 · Median 39 2026-08-23 · Median 38.8 2026-08-25 · Median 38.8 2026-08-27 · Median 39 2026-08-28 · Median 39 2026-09-01 · Median 39 2026-09-02 · Median 39 2026-09-03 · Median 39 2026-09-05 · Median 39 2026-09-06 · Median 39 2026-09-09 · Median 45 2026-09-14 · Median 43.9 2026-09-15 · Median 44 2026-09-16 · Median 44 2026-09-17 · Median 44 2026-09-18 · Median 44 2026-09-19 · Median 44 2026-09-21 · Median 44 2026-09-22 · Median 44 2026-09-24 · Median 44 2026-09-25 · Median 44 2026-09-29 · Median 44 2026-09-30 · Median 44 2026-10-03 · Median 44 2026-10-04 · Median 44 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 44

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0444
2026-10-0344
2026-09-3044
2026-09-2944
2026-09-2544
2026-09-2444
2026-09-2244
2026-09-2144
2026-09-1944
2026-09-1844
2026-09-1744
2026-09-1644
2026-09-1544
2026-09-1443.9
2026-09-0945
2026-09-0639
2026-09-0539
2026-09-0339
2026-09-0239
2026-09-0139
2026-08-2839
2026-08-2739
2026-08-2538.8
2026-08-2338.8
2026-08-2239
2026-08-2039
2026-08-1939
2026-08-1839
2026-08-1739
2026-08-1639

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 90
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.2
394448
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -18.5

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence90
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection35.8
Projected range13–59
Arrival probability8%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.