Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Carter Graham

CIN · AA · 1B

Cincinnati Reds · Age at assessment: 25.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#520
Prospect Score62.3
Median59
Performance Signal+41.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
555963
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +41.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 59
63 55 47 2026-08-14 · Median 53 2026-08-16 · Median 53 2026-08-17 · Median 53 2026-08-18 · Median 53 2026-08-19 · Median 53 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 52 2026-08-23 · Median 51 2026-08-25 · Median 51 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 58.5 2026-09-15 · Median 58 2026-09-16 · Median 58 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 59 2026-09-22 · Median 59 2026-09-24 · Median 59 2026-09-25 · Median 59 2026-09-29 · Median 59 2026-09-30 · Median 59 2026-10-03 · Median 59 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 59

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0359
2026-09-3059
2026-09-2959
2026-09-2559
2026-09-2459
2026-09-2259
2026-09-2159
2026-09-1959
2026-09-1859
2026-09-1759
2026-09-1658
2026-09-1558
2026-09-1458.5
2026-09-0959
2026-09-0654
2026-09-0554
2026-09-0354
2026-09-0255
2026-09-0156
2026-08-2853
2026-08-2753
2026-08-2551
2026-08-2351
2026-08-2252
2026-08-2053
2026-08-1953
2026-08-1853
2026-08-1753
2026-08-1653
2026-08-1453

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 90
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
555963
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +41.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence90
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection43.1
Projected range26–60
Arrival probability68%
Productive role probability9%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.