Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Carter Graham

CIN · AA · 1B

Cincinnati Reds · Age at assessment: 25 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Game power ahead of the tool grade

Current extra-base impact is outperforming the verified power expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#516
Prospect Score62
Median59
Performance62
Trend-0.2%

Why the player is here

  • Power 50; game-power evidence sits near the 96th percentile for comparable players
  • ISO is 0.265

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Contact+42.9 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 85
Game Power+46.2 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 96

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 49 Latest recorded 59
64 52 40 2026-06-04 · Median 49 2026-06-05 · Median 52 2026-06-06 · Median 55 2026-06-07 · Median 55 2026-06-08 · Median 53 2026-06-09 · Median 53 2026-06-10 · Median 55 2026-06-11 · Median 55 2026-06-12 · Median 56 2026-06-13 · Median 56 2026-06-14 · Median 56 2026-06-15 · Median 55 2026-06-16 · Median 55 2026-06-17 · Median 59 2026-06-18 · Median 58 2026-06-19 · Median 59 2026-06-20 · Median 58 2026-06-21 · Median 57 2026-06-22 · Median 57 2026-06-23 · Median 57 2026-06-24 · Median 56 2026-06-25 · Median 59 2026-06-26 · Median 60 2026-06-28 · Median 59 2026-06-29 · Median 59 2026-06-30 · Median 59 2026-07-01 · Median 59 2026-07-03 · Median 44 2026-07-05 · Median 44 2026-07-07 · Median 44 2026-07-09 · Median 44 2026-07-11 · Median 44 2026-07-12 · Median 44 2026-07-14 · Median 47 2026-07-16 · Median 47 2026-07-21 · Median 47 2026-07-22 · Median 47 2026-07-23 · Median 58 2026-07-24 · Median 55 2026-07-25 · Median 55 2026-07-26 · Median 57 2026-07-27 · Median 57 2026-07-28 · Median 57 2026-07-29 · Median 55 2026-07-30 · Median 56 2026-07-31 · Median 55 2026-08-01 · Median 55 2026-08-03 · Median 55 2026-08-05 · Median 54 2026-08-07 · Median 53 2026-08-08 · Median 53 2026-08-09 · Median 53 2026-08-10 · Median 51 2026-08-11 · Median 52 2026-08-13 · Median 52 2026-08-14 · Median 53 2026-08-16 · Median 53 2026-08-17 · Median 53 2026-08-18 · Median 53 2026-08-19 · Median 53 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 52 2026-08-23 · Median 51 2026-08-25 · Median 51 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 58.5 2026-09-15 · Median 58 2026-09-16 · Median 58 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 59 2026-09-22 · Median 59 2026-09-24 · Median 59 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 59

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2459
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Metrics to follow

ISO 0.265

Separates extra-base impact from batting average

Definition

Isolated power, calculated as slugging percentage minus batting average

SLG 0.565

Tracks total bases per at-bat

Definition

Slugging percentage, weighting extra-base hits more heavily

K% 21.2%

Shows the swing-and-miss cost of accessing power

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Lower is generally better for hitters

Next checkpointRecheck ISO, SLG, and K% after the next 75 plate appearances

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G126
PA552
AVG.300
OBP.421
SLG.565
OPS.986
HR29
SB13
BB%14.5%
K%21.2%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range-0.2%
555963
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 62

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence90
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production43.1
Historical 80% error band26–60
MLB arrival in 3 years68%
Productive MLB role in 3 years9%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Hit icon
Hit45Fringe
Power icon
Power50Avg
Speed icon
Speed40Developmental
Defense icon
Defense50Avg
Arm icon
Arm50Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileHitPowerSpeedDefenseArm20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Position Player

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels1669601319515129203.317.406.6831.089
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Chattanooga LookoutsAA602602204361141123335626.277.388.514.902
2026Dayton DragonsHigh-A662922334375170176045557.322.450.6141.064
20262 teams · TotalAll levels1265524538613631129938011713.300.421.565.986
2025Dayton DragonsHigh-A57229206295110042213507.248.306.354.660
2025Daytona TortugasSingle-A4417915619368152016415.231.307.391.698
20252 teams · TotalAll levels1014083624887181942299112.240.306.370.677
2024Dayton DragonsHigh-A3413111715225051510453.188.267.359.626
2024Daytona TortugasSingle-A49187162203810132515385.235.326.364.690
20242 teams · TotalAll levels83318279356015184025838.215.302.362.664
2023Daytona TortugasSingle-A1140315610036112.194.350.226.576
2023ACL RedsACL41313231011050.231.231.538.769
20232 teams · TotalAll levels1553447920146162.205.321.318.639

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More Cincinnati Reds profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.