Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Cesar Mateo

TEX · DSL · SS

Texas Rangers · Age at assessment: 17.6 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#566
Prospect Score61.9
Median60
Performance Signal+32.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
526069
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +32.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 59 Latest recorded 60
65 60 55 2026-08-14 · Median 59 2026-08-16 · Median 60 2026-08-17 · Median 60 2026-08-18 · Median 60 2026-08-19 · Median 60 2026-08-20 · Median 60 2026-08-22 · Median 60 2026-08-23 · Median 60.4 2026-08-25 · Median 60.4 2026-08-27 · Median 60 2026-08-28 · Median 60 2026-09-01 · Median 60 2026-09-02 · Median 60 2026-09-03 · Median 60 2026-09-05 · Median 60 2026-09-06 · Median 60 2026-09-09 · Median 61 2026-09-14 · Median 60.7 2026-09-15 · Median 61 2026-09-16 · Median 61 2026-09-17 · Median 61 2026-09-18 · Median 61 2026-09-19 · Median 61 2026-09-21 · Median 60 2026-09-22 · Median 60 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-09-25 · Median 60 2026-09-29 · Median 60 2026-09-30 · Median 60 2026-10-03 · Median 60 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0360
2026-09-3060
2026-09-2960
2026-09-2560
2026-09-2460
2026-09-2260
2026-09-2160
2026-09-1961
2026-09-1861
2026-09-1761
2026-09-1661
2026-09-1561
2026-09-1460.7
2026-09-0961
2026-09-0660
2026-09-0560
2026-09-0360
2026-09-0260
2026-09-0160
2026-08-2860
2026-08-2760
2026-08-2560.4
2026-08-2360.4
2026-08-2260
2026-08-2060
2026-08-1960
2026-08-1860
2026-08-1760
2026-08-1660
2026-08-1459

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 55
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 24
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
526069
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +32.0

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 24
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence55
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection50.8
Projected range32–69
Arrival probability53%
Productive role probability15%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.