Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Charles Davalan

LAD · AA · OF

Prospect Baseline Rank #86

Player Assessment

Current model read

Performance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Charles Davalan's current evaluation. The 69 Performance Grade sits 14 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation.

Prospect Score & Development

62/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

71/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

92/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
69/100

Solid current production

ISO
Power.241 ISOAbove-average game power
K%
Contact10.7% KStrong contact signal
OBP
On-base foundation.400 OBPStrong on-base foundation

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
55
Hit
60
Power
45
Run
55
Field
50
Arm
45

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

The projection centers on 71, bounded by a 63 Floor and 74 Ceiling. There is still meaningful movement available in either direction, but the range is not unusually volatile. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The key question is whether the production forces the scouting view upward rather than drifting back toward it. Repeating the same performance against stronger competition or over a larger sample would strengthen the Floor and make the breakout harder to dismiss. That confirmation matters more now than simply adding another short stretch of strong surface numbers.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level56
Track record73
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 63Baseline 71Ceiling 74

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 71 on · Current Floor 63, Baseline 71, Ceiling 74

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1271pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0971pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0871pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0772pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0572pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0472pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0372pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3072pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2972pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2572pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2472pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2272pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2172pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1972pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1872pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1772pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1672pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1572pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1468pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0968pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0668pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0568pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0368pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-09-0168pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2868pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2768pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2569pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-2369pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2269pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2069pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-0369pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0169pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3169pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3069pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-2868pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-1468pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1268pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1168pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0968pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0768pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0568pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0368pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0168pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-3068pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2968pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2868pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2668pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2568pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2468pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2368pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2268pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2168pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2068pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1968pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1868pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1768pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1668pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1568pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1468pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1368pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1268pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1168pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1068pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0968pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0868pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0768pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0668pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0568pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0468pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 74 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 92/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Verified league roster listing

The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.

Arizona Fall League · 2026

Verified roster listing: Glendale Desert Dogs · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09

Prospect Score: 62.0 · Baseline: 71.0

View league model rankings

More Los Angeles Dodgers profiles

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.