Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Charlie Pagliarini

SEA · AA · 3B · Age 26

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score48.2#1,922 Overall
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Performance49Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor39Lower-end outcome
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Ceiling53High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
49Developing performance profile
Power.234 ISOAbove-average game power
Contact29.8% KContact risk
Approach13.8% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid60How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh12Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection38.0
Projected Range21–55
Arrival Probability46%
Productive Role Probability5%
Player Background
OrganizationSeattle Mariners
LevelAA
Position3B
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 45
51 46 41 2026-09-02 · Median 47 2026-09-03 · Median 47 2026-09-05 · Median 47 2026-09-06 · Median 47 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 45.4 2026-09-15 · Median 45 2026-09-16 · Median 45 2026-09-17 · Median 45 2026-09-18 · Median 45 2026-09-19 · Median 45 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 45 2026-09-25 · Median 46 2026-09-29 · Median 45 2026-09-30 · Median 45 2026-10-03 · Median 45 2026-10-04 · Median 45 2026-10-05 · Median 45 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 45

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0545
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2026-09-0946
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2026-09-0547
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2026-09-0247