Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Cole Hertzler

HOU · AA · P

Houston Astros · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#419
Prospect Score64.2
Median59
Performance Signal+15.3
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
555963
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +15.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 49 Latest recorded 59
63 53.5 44 2026-08-14 · Median 49 2026-08-16 · Median 48 2026-08-17 · Median 48 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 50 2026-08-20 · Median 50 2026-08-22 · Median 50 2026-08-23 · Median 50.4 2026-08-25 · Median 50.4 2026-08-27 · Median 56 2026-08-28 · Median 56 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 56 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 59 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 58 2026-09-22 · Median 58 2026-09-24 · Median 58 2026-09-25 · Median 59 2026-09-29 · Median 59 2026-09-30 · Median 59 2026-10-03 · Median 59 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 59

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0359
2026-09-3059
2026-09-2959
2026-09-2559
2026-09-2458
2026-09-2258
2026-09-2158
2026-09-1959
2026-09-1859
2026-09-1759
2026-09-1659
2026-09-1559
2026-09-1459
2026-09-0959
2026-09-0656
2026-09-0556
2026-09-0356
2026-09-0256
2026-09-0156
2026-08-2856
2026-08-2756
2026-08-2550.4
2026-08-2350.4
2026-08-2250
2026-08-2050
2026-08-1950
2026-08-1848
2026-08-1748
2026-08-1648
2026-08-1449

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 91
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
555963
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +15.3

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence91
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection46.3
Projected range24–69
Arrival probability31%
Productive role probability4%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.