Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Colton Shaw

SEA · High-A · P

Seattle Mariners · Age at assessment: 23.2 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Command results ahead of the tool grade

Current strike throwing is outperforming the verified command expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#411
Prospect Score65
Median60
Performance61
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Command 55; command evidence sits near the 96th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 1.5

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+20.8 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 71
Command+37.6 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 96

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 61 Latest recorded 60
67 60 53 2026-06-04 · Median 61 2026-06-05 · Median 61 2026-06-06 · Median 60 2026-06-07 · Median 60 2026-06-08 · Median 60 2026-06-09 · Median 60 2026-06-10 · Median 60 2026-06-11 · Median 60 2026-06-12 · Median 60 2026-06-13 · Median 59 2026-06-14 · Median 59 2026-06-15 · Median 59 2026-06-16 · Median 59 2026-06-17 · Median 60 2026-06-18 · Median 60 2026-06-19 · Median 60 2026-06-20 · Median 59 2026-06-21 · Median 59 2026-06-22 · Median 59 2026-06-23 · Median 59 2026-06-24 · Median 59 2026-06-25 · Median 59 2026-06-26 · Median 59 2026-06-28 · Median 57 2026-06-29 · Median 57 2026-06-30 · Median 57 2026-07-01 · Median 57 2026-07-03 · Median 59 2026-07-05 · Median 63 2026-07-07 · Median 63 2026-07-09 · Median 63 2026-07-11 · Median 63 2026-07-12 · Median 63 2026-07-14 · Median 62 2026-07-16 · Median 62 2026-07-21 · Median 61 2026-07-22 · Median 61 2026-07-23 · Median 61 2026-07-24 · Median 59 2026-07-25 · Median 58 2026-07-26 · Median 58 2026-07-27 · Median 58 2026-07-28 · Median 58 2026-07-29 · Median 58 2026-07-30 · Median 58 2026-07-31 · Median 58 2026-08-01 · Median 58 2026-08-03 · Median 58 2026-08-05 · Median 58 2026-08-07 · Median 58 2026-08-08 · Median 59 2026-08-09 · Median 59 2026-08-10 · Median 59 2026-08-11 · Median 59 2026-08-13 · Median 59 2026-08-14 · Median 59 2026-08-16 · Median 59 2026-08-17 · Median 59 2026-08-18 · Median 59 2026-08-19 · Median 59 2026-08-20 · Median 58 2026-08-22 · Median 58 2026-08-23 · Median 57.4 2026-08-25 · Median 57.4 2026-08-27 · Median 58 2026-08-28 · Median 58 2026-09-01 · Median 60 2026-09-02 · Median 60 2026-09-03 · Median 60 2026-09-05 · Median 60 2026-09-06 · Median 60 2026-09-09 · Median 60 2026-09-14 · Median 59.9 2026-09-15 · Median 60 2026-09-16 · Median 60 2026-09-17 · Median 60 2026-09-18 · Median 60 2026-09-19 · Median 60 2026-09-21 · Median 60 2026-09-22 · Median 60 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2460
2026-09-2260
2026-09-2160
2026-09-1960
2026-09-1860
2026-09-1760
2026-09-1660
2026-09-1560
2026-09-1459.9
2026-09-0960
2026-09-0660
2026-09-0560
2026-09-0360
2026-09-0260
2026-09-0160
2026-08-2858
2026-08-2758
2026-08-2557.4
2026-08-2357.4
2026-08-2258
2026-08-2058
2026-08-1959
2026-08-1859
2026-08-1759
2026-08-1659
2026-08-1459
2026-08-1359
2026-08-1159
2026-08-1059
2026-08-0959
2026-08-0859
2026-08-0758
2026-08-0558
2026-08-0358
2026-08-0158
2026-07-3158
2026-07-3058
2026-07-2958
2026-07-2858
2026-07-2758
2026-07-2658
2026-07-2558
2026-07-2459
2026-07-2361
2026-07-2261
2026-07-2161
2026-07-1662
2026-07-1462
2026-07-1263
2026-07-1163
2026-07-0963
2026-07-0763
2026-07-0563
2026-07-0359
2026-07-0157
2026-06-3057
2026-06-2957
2026-06-2857
2026-06-2659
2026-06-2559
2026-06-2459
2026-06-2359
2026-06-2259
2026-06-2159
2026-06-2059
2026-06-1960
2026-06-1860
2026-06-1760
2026-06-1659
2026-06-1559
2026-06-1459
2026-06-1359
2026-06-1260
2026-06-1160
2026-06-1060
2026-06-0960
2026-06-0860
2026-06-0760
2026-06-0660
2026-06-0561
2026-06-0461

Metrics to follow

BB/9 1.5

Primary strike-throwing checkpoint

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

WHIP 1.10

Tracks total traffic allowed

Definition

Walks and hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower is generally better

K-BB% 22.0%

Balances dominance against walks

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G23
IP111.2
ERA4.43
WHIP1.15
K/99.8
BB/91.5
K-BB%22.0%

Everett AquaSox · High-A · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
556065
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 61

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence89
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production56.7
Historical 80% error band36–78
MLB arrival in 3 years33%
Productive MLB role in 3 years4%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball50Avg
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Cutter icon
Cutter45Fringe
Changeup icon
Changeup40Developmental
Command icon
Control55Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderCutterChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels001.862209.274204121.1411.17
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Everett AquaSoxHigh-A654.4323220111.2109635511191211.159.75
2025Modesto NutsSingle-A003.723309.211440081.147.45

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More Seattle Mariners profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.