Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Dalton Pence

TEX · AAA · P · Age 24

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score71.8#157 Overall
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Performance62Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor62Lower-end outcome
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Ceiling70High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
62Solid current performance
Miss ability9.3 K/9Near expected range
Command3.7 BB/9Near expected range
Traffic prevention1.17 WHIPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball55
Slider55
Control50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh93How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection48.1
Projected Range25–71
Arrival Probability56%
Productive Role Probability10%
Player Background
OrganizationTexas Rangers
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 61 Latest recorded 66
72 64.5 57 2026-09-02 · Median 61 2026-09-03 · Median 61 2026-09-05 · Median 61 2026-09-06 · Median 61 2026-09-09 · Median 68 2026-09-14 · Median 67.2 2026-09-15 · Median 67 2026-09-16 · Median 67 2026-09-17 · Median 67 2026-09-18 · Median 66 2026-09-19 · Median 66 2026-09-21 · Median 66 2026-09-22 · Median 66 2026-09-24 · Median 66 2026-09-25 · Median 66 2026-09-29 · Median 66 2026-09-30 · Median 66 2026-10-03 · Median 66 2026-10-04 · Median 66 2026-10-05 · Median 66 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 66

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0566
2026-10-0466
2026-10-0366
2026-09-3066
2026-09-2966
2026-09-2566
2026-09-2466
2026-09-2266
2026-09-2166
2026-09-1966
2026-09-1866
2026-09-1767
2026-09-1667
2026-09-1567
2026-09-1467.2
2026-09-0968
2026-09-0661
2026-09-0561
2026-09-0361
2026-09-0261