Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Dariel Francia

PIT · AA · P

Pittsburgh Pirates · Age at assessment: 20.2 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#825
Prospect Score58.3
Median60
Performance Signal-13.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
516068
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 60
64 52.5 41 2026-08-14 · Median 47 2026-08-16 · Median 47 2026-08-17 · Median 47 2026-08-18 · Median 47 2026-08-19 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 47.2 2026-08-25 · Median 47.2 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 47 2026-09-01 · Median 47 2026-09-02 · Median 47 2026-09-03 · Median 47 2026-09-05 · Median 47 2026-09-06 · Median 47 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 45.5 2026-09-15 · Median 60 2026-09-16 · Median 60 2026-09-17 · Median 60 2026-09-18 · Median 60 2026-09-19 · Median 60 2026-09-21 · Median 60 2026-09-22 · Median 60 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-09-25 · Median 60 2026-09-29 · Median 60 2026-09-30 · Median 60 2026-10-03 · Median 60 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0360
2026-09-3060
2026-09-2960
2026-09-2560
2026-09-2460
2026-09-2260
2026-09-2160
2026-09-1960
2026-09-1860
2026-09-1760
2026-09-1660
2026-09-1560
2026-09-1445.5
2026-09-0946
2026-09-0647
2026-09-0547
2026-09-0347
2026-09-0247
2026-09-0147
2026-08-2847
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2547.2
2026-08-2347.2
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1947
2026-08-1847
2026-08-1747
2026-08-1647
2026-08-1447

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 24
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
516068
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 24
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection34.0
Projected range9–59
Arrival probability13%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.