Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Dawson Willis

SD · Single-A · SS

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#2,032
Score47.3
Baseline46
Signal+3.0
Trend0.0
Floor38
Baseline46
Ceiling56
Confidence57 Risk28 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Dawson Willis

SD · Single-A · SS

San Diego Padres · Age at assessment: 22.5 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#2,032
Prospect Score47.3
Median46
Performance Signal+3.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
384656
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 48 Latest recorded 46
52 47 42 2026-07-16 · Median 48 2026-07-21 · Median 48 2026-07-22 · Median 48 2026-07-23 · Median 48 2026-08-20 · Median 46 2026-08-22 · Median 46 2026-08-23 · Median 46.3 2026-08-25 · Median 46.3 2026-08-27 · Median 46 2026-08-28 · Median 46 2026-09-01 · Median 46 2026-09-02 · Median 46 2026-09-03 · Median 46 2026-09-05 · Median 46 2026-09-06 · Median 46 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 46.4 2026-09-15 · Median 46 2026-09-16 · Median 46 2026-09-17 · Median 46 2026-09-18 · Median 46 2026-09-19 · Median 46 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 46 2026-09-25 · Median 46 2026-09-29 · Median 46 2026-09-30 · Median 46 2026-10-03 · Median 46 2026-10-04 · Median 46 2026-07-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 46

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0446
2026-10-0346
2026-09-3046
2026-09-2946
2026-09-2546
2026-09-2446
2026-09-2246
2026-09-2146
2026-09-1946
2026-09-1846
2026-09-1746
2026-09-1646
2026-09-1546
2026-09-1446.4
2026-09-0946
2026-09-0646
2026-09-0546
2026-09-0346
2026-09-0246
2026-09-0146
2026-08-2846
2026-08-2746
2026-08-2546.3
2026-08-2346.3
2026-08-2246
2026-08-2046
2026-07-2348
2026-07-2248
2026-07-2148
2026-07-1648

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 57
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 28
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
384656
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.0

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 28
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence57
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.9
Projected range19–55
Arrival probability10%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.