Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Derek Berg

PIT · AAA · C

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,824
Score48.8
Baseline47
Signal-24.9
Trend-0.2
Floor40
Baseline47
Ceiling54
Confidence63 Risk12 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Derek Berg

PIT · AAA · C

Pittsburgh Pirates · Age at assessment: 25.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,824
Prospect Score48.8
Median47
Performance Signal-24.9
Trend-0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-0.2
404754
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 47
52 46 40 2026-07-21 · Median 46 2026-07-22 · Median 46 2026-07-23 · Median 46 2026-07-24 · Median 44 2026-08-20 · Median 48 2026-08-22 · Median 48 2026-08-23 · Median 46.2 2026-08-25 · Median 46.2 2026-08-27 · Median 45 2026-08-28 · Median 45 2026-09-01 · Median 45 2026-09-02 · Median 45 2026-09-03 · Median 44 2026-09-05 · Median 44 2026-09-06 · Median 44 2026-09-09 · Median 47 2026-09-14 · Median 47 2026-09-15 · Median 47 2026-09-16 · Median 47 2026-09-17 · Median 47 2026-09-18 · Median 47 2026-09-19 · Median 47 2026-09-21 · Median 47 2026-09-22 · Median 47 2026-09-24 · Median 47 2026-09-25 · Median 47 2026-09-29 · Median 47 2026-09-30 · Median 47 2026-10-03 · Median 47 2026-10-04 · Median 47 2026-07-21 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 47

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0447
2026-10-0347
2026-09-3047
2026-09-2947
2026-09-2547
2026-09-2447
2026-09-2247
2026-09-2147
2026-09-1947
2026-09-1847
2026-09-1747
2026-09-1647
2026-09-1547
2026-09-1447
2026-09-0947
2026-09-0644
2026-09-0544
2026-09-0344
2026-09-0245
2026-09-0145
2026-08-2845
2026-08-2745
2026-08-2546.2
2026-08-2346.2
2026-08-2248
2026-08-2048
2026-07-2444
2026-07-2346
2026-07-2246
2026-07-2146

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 63
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 12
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-0.2
404754
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 12
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence63
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection29.4
Projected range12–47
Arrival probability23%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.