Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Derek Bernard

COL · High-A · OF

Colorado Rockies · Age at assessment: 21.1 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#989
Prospect Score56.3
Median52
Performance Signal+0.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
455259
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 40 Latest recorded 52
56 46 36 2026-08-14 · Median 40 2026-08-16 · Median 40 2026-08-17 · Median 40 2026-08-18 · Median 40 2026-08-19 · Median 40 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46.7 2026-08-25 · Median 46.7 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 46 2026-09-01 · Median 46 2026-09-02 · Median 46 2026-09-03 · Median 46 2026-09-05 · Median 46 2026-09-06 · Median 46 2026-09-09 · Median 52 2026-09-14 · Median 51.7 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 52 2026-09-19 · Median 52 2026-09-21 · Median 52 2026-09-22 · Median 52 2026-09-24 · Median 52 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 52 2026-09-30 · Median 52 2026-10-03 · Median 52 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 52

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0352
2026-09-3052
2026-09-2952
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2452
2026-09-2252
2026-09-2152
2026-09-1952
2026-09-1852
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1451.7
2026-09-0952
2026-09-0646
2026-09-0546
2026-09-0346
2026-09-0246
2026-09-0146
2026-08-2846
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2546.7
2026-08-2346.7
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1940
2026-08-1840
2026-08-1740
2026-08-1640
2026-08-1440

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 60
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
455259
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence60
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.6
Projected range21–52
Arrival probability29%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.