Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Drake Fellows

PHI · AAA · P · Age 29

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score19.4#6,002 Overall
Baseline21Most likely outcome
Performance30Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor20Lower-end outcome
Baseline21Most likely outcome
Ceiling28High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
30Developing performance profile
Miss ability5.2 K/9Limited miss signal
Dominance5.0% K-BBNarrow strikeout-to-walk margin
Contact management1.6 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid60How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskSolid27Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection32.6
Projected Range10–55
Arrival Probability6%
Productive Role Probability0%
Player Background
OrganizationPhiladelphia Phillies
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 21 Latest recorded 21 Change +0.1
26 21 16 2026-09-02 · Median 20.9 2026-09-03 · Median 21.4 2026-09-05 · Median 21.4 2026-09-06 · Median 21.4 2026-09-09 · Median 21.4 2026-09-14 · Median 21.3 2026-09-15 · Median 21.3 2026-09-16 · Median 21 2026-09-17 · Median 21 2026-09-18 · Median 21 2026-09-19 · Median 21 2026-09-21 · Median 21 2026-09-22 · Median 21 2026-09-24 · Median 21 2026-09-25 · Median 21 2026-09-29 · Median 21 2026-09-30 · Median 21 2026-10-03 · Median 21 2026-10-04 · Median 21 2026-10-05 · Median 21 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 21

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0521
2026-10-0421
2026-10-0321
2026-09-3021
2026-09-2921
2026-09-2521
2026-09-2421
2026-09-2221
2026-09-2121
2026-09-1921
2026-09-1821
2026-09-1721
2026-09-1621
2026-09-1521.3
2026-09-1421.3
2026-09-0921.4
2026-09-0621.4
2026-09-0521.4
2026-09-0321.4
2026-09-0220.9