Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Edward Duran

TOR · AA · C · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score55.9#1,027 Overall
Baseline50Most likely outcome
Performance40Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor46Lower-end outcome
Baseline50Most likely outcome
Ceiling55High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
40Developing performance profile
Offensive impact.605 OPSLimited current offensive impact
Contact20.8% KNear expected range
On-base foundation.285 OBPOn-base output is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit40
Power40
Run40
Field55
Arm60

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-24

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh92How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh5Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection33.1
Projected Range16–50
Arrival Probability13%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationToronto Blue Jays
LevelAA
PositionC
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 52 Latest recorded 50
56 51 46 2026-09-02 · Median 52 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 52 2026-09-06 · Median 52 2026-09-09 · Median 50 2026-09-14 · Median 50.1 2026-09-15 · Median 50 2026-09-16 · Median 50 2026-09-17 · Median 50 2026-09-18 · Median 50 2026-09-19 · Median 50 2026-09-21 · Median 50 2026-09-22 · Median 50 2026-09-24 · Median 50 2026-09-25 · Median 50 2026-09-29 · Median 50 2026-09-30 · Median 50 2026-10-03 · Median 50 2026-10-04 · Median 50 2026-10-05 · Median 50 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 50

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0550
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2026-09-0950
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2026-09-0552
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2026-09-0252