Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Eli Serrano III

NYM · AA · RF

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 23.4 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Contact translation concern

The verified hit tool is not matching the current contact results. Strikeout rate is the first metric to monitor

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#827
Prospect Score58
Median55
Performance42
Trend-0.2%

Why the player is here

  • Hit 45; contact evidence sits near the 16th percentile for comparable players
  • K% is 26.3%

What could change the read

  • A 12.7% walk rate provides meaningful approach support

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Contact-25.6 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 16
Game Power-20.4 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 30

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 55
60 47 34 2026-06-04 · Median 47 2026-06-05 · Median 47 2026-06-06 · Median 48 2026-06-07 · Median 48 2026-06-08 · Median 48 2026-06-09 · Median 48 2026-06-10 · Median 47 2026-06-11 · Median 46 2026-06-12 · Median 46 2026-06-13 · Median 47 2026-06-14 · Median 47 2026-06-15 · Median 47 2026-06-16 · Median 47 2026-06-17 · Median 47 2026-06-18 · Median 47 2026-06-19 · Median 47 2026-06-20 · Median 47 2026-06-21 · Median 47 2026-06-22 · Median 47 2026-06-23 · Median 47 2026-06-24 · Median 47 2026-06-25 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 39 2026-08-22 · Median 39 2026-08-23 · Median 38.7 2026-08-25 · Median 48.9 2026-08-27 · Median 56 2026-08-28 · Median 56 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 55 2026-09-05 · Median 55 2026-09-06 · Median 55 2026-09-09 · Median 55 2026-09-14 · Median 55.4 2026-09-15 · Median 55 2026-09-16 · Median 55 2026-09-17 · Median 55 2026-09-18 · Median 55 2026-09-19 · Median 55 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2255
2026-09-2155
2026-09-1955
2026-09-1855
2026-09-1755
2026-09-1655
2026-09-1555
2026-09-1455.4
2026-09-0955
2026-09-0655
2026-09-0555
2026-09-0355
2026-09-0256
2026-09-0156
2026-08-2856
2026-08-2756
2026-08-2548.9
2026-08-2338.7
2026-08-2239
2026-08-2039
2026-06-2547
2026-06-2447
2026-06-2347
2026-06-2247
2026-06-2147
2026-06-2047
2026-06-1947
2026-06-1847
2026-06-1747
2026-06-1647
2026-06-1547
2026-06-1447
2026-06-1347
2026-06-1246
2026-06-1146
2026-06-1047
2026-06-0948
2026-06-0848
2026-06-0748
2026-06-0648
2026-06-0547
2026-06-0447

Metrics to follow

K% 26.3%

Primary contact-pressure indicator

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Lower is generally better for hitters

BB% 12.7%

Shows whether patience offsets swing-and-miss

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk

OBP 0.298

Tracks the overall on-base foundation

Definition

On-base percentage, measuring how often a hitter reaches base

Next checkpointRecheck K%, BB%, and OBP after the next 75 plate appearances

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G75
PA316
AVG.185
OBP.298
SLG.336
OPS.634
HR6
SB8
BB%12.7%
K%26.3%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range-0.2%
515560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 42

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 5
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence92
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production38.2
Historical 80% error band21–56
MLB arrival in 3 years17%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Hit icon
Hit45Fringe
Power icon
Power50Avg
Speed icon
Speed55Avg
Defense icon
Defense50Avg
Arm icon
Arm55Avg
Overall icon
Overall45Fringe

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileHitPowerSpeedDefenseArm20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Position Player

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels1352475820255142.170.250.340.590
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Binghamton Rumble PoniesAA68287242284615362735758.190.297.351.648
2026St. Lucie MetsSingle-A72923131000580.130.310.174.484
20262 teams · TotalAll levels75316265294916362740838.185.298.336.634
2025Brooklyn CyclonesHigh-A88383324517221174650779.222.332.358.690
2024St. Lucie MetsSingle-A17726381532267161.238.333.444.778

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

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Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.