Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Elian Rosario

TEX · DSL · SS

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#727
Score59.5
Baseline57
Signal+10.4
Trend0.0
Floor51
Baseline57
Ceiling63
Confidence84 Risk24 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Elian Rosario

TEX · DSL · SS

Texas Rangers · Age at assessment: 18.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#727
Prospect Score59.5
Median57
Performance Signal+10.4
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
515763
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 57
61 54.5 48 2026-08-16 · Median 53 2026-08-17 · Median 53 2026-08-18 · Median 53 2026-08-19 · Median 53 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 53 2026-08-23 · Median 52.7 2026-08-25 · Median 52.7 2026-08-27 · Median 57 2026-08-28 · Median 57 2026-09-01 · Median 57 2026-09-02 · Median 57 2026-09-03 · Median 57 2026-09-05 · Median 57 2026-09-06 · Median 57 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.6 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 57 2026-09-30 · Median 57 2026-10-03 · Median 57 2026-10-04 · Median 57 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 57

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0457
2026-10-0357
2026-09-3057
2026-09-2957
2026-09-2557
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
2026-09-2157
2026-09-1957
2026-09-1857
2026-09-1757
2026-09-1657
2026-09-1557
2026-09-1456.6
2026-09-0957
2026-09-0657
2026-09-0557
2026-09-0357
2026-09-0257
2026-09-0157
2026-08-2857
2026-08-2757
2026-08-2552.7
2026-08-2352.7
2026-08-2253
2026-08-2053
2026-08-1953
2026-08-1853
2026-08-1753
2026-08-1653

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 84
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 24
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
515763
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 24
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence84
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection47.8
Projected range30–66
Arrival probability13%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.