Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Esmerlin Vinicio

SF · AA · P

San Francisco Giants · Age at assessment: 23.7 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#932
Prospect Score56.9
Median54
Performance Signal+5.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
485461
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 54
59 48 37 2026-08-14 · Median 41 2026-08-16 · Median 41 2026-08-17 · Median 41 2026-08-18 · Median 41 2026-08-19 · Median 41 2026-08-20 · Median 50 2026-08-22 · Median 50 2026-08-23 · Median 48 2026-08-25 · Median 48 2026-08-27 · Median 50 2026-08-28 · Median 50 2026-09-01 · Median 52 2026-09-02 · Median 52 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 52 2026-09-06 · Median 52 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 54.5 2026-09-15 · Median 55 2026-09-16 · Median 55 2026-09-17 · Median 55 2026-09-18 · Median 55 2026-09-19 · Median 55 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-09-25 · Median 55 2026-09-29 · Median 54 2026-09-30 · Median 54 2026-10-03 · Median 54 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 54

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0354
2026-09-3054
2026-09-2954
2026-09-2555
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2255
2026-09-2155
2026-09-1955
2026-09-1855
2026-09-1755
2026-09-1655
2026-09-1555
2026-09-1454.5
2026-09-0954
2026-09-0652
2026-09-0552
2026-09-0352
2026-09-0252
2026-09-0152
2026-08-2850
2026-08-2750
2026-08-2548
2026-08-2348
2026-08-2250
2026-08-2050
2026-08-1941
2026-08-1841
2026-08-1741
2026-08-1641
2026-08-1441

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
485461
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection40.7
Projected range16–66
Arrival probability24%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.