Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Esmil Valencia

MIA · High-A · CF

Miami Marlins · Age at assessment: 21.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,237
Prospect Score53.7
Median48
Performance Signal-13.4
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
434853
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 48 Latest recorded 48
53 48 43 2026-08-14 · Median 48 2026-08-16 · Median 47 2026-08-17 · Median 47 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 48 2026-08-20 · Median 48 2026-08-22 · Median 48 2026-08-23 · Median 48.4 2026-08-25 · Median 48.4 2026-08-27 · Median 48 2026-08-28 · Median 48 2026-09-01 · Median 49 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 49 2026-09-14 · Median 48.7 2026-09-15 · Median 49 2026-09-16 · Median 49 2026-09-17 · Median 49 2026-09-18 · Median 49 2026-09-19 · Median 49 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 48

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1949
2026-09-1849
2026-09-1749
2026-09-1649
2026-09-1549
2026-09-1448.7
2026-09-0949
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249
2026-09-0149
2026-08-2848
2026-08-2748
2026-08-2548.4
2026-08-2348.4
2026-08-2248
2026-08-2048
2026-08-1948
2026-08-1848
2026-08-1747
2026-08-1647
2026-08-1448

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 91
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 9
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
434853
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 9
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence91
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection31.8
Projected range14–50
Arrival probability15%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.