Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Ethan Long

SD · Single-A · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score13.4#6,323 Overall
Baseline24Most likely outcome
Performance35Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor20Lower-end outcome
Baseline24Most likely outcome
Ceiling35High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. The primary separator is whether the current progress can hold while projection risk remains elevated.

Performance

Selected evidence
35Developing performance profile
Balanced Performance Profile

No individual statistical signal is disproportionately driving the current Performance Score.

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceLimited33How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskLimited98Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusInsufficient current-season sample
Player Background
OrganizationSan Diego Padres
LevelSingle-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 21 Latest recorded 24 Change +2.6
28 22.5 17 2026-09-02 · Median 21.4 2026-09-03 · Median 21.4 2026-09-05 · Median 21.4 2026-09-06 · Median 21.4 2026-09-09 · Median 23.5 2026-09-14 · Median 23.5 2026-09-15 · Median 23.5 2026-09-16 · Median 24 2026-09-17 · Median 24 2026-09-18 · Median 24 2026-09-19 · Median 24 2026-09-21 · Median 24 2026-09-22 · Median 24 2026-09-24 · Median 24 2026-09-25 · Median 24 2026-09-29 · Median 24 2026-09-30 · Median 24 2026-10-03 · Median 24 2026-10-04 · Median 24 2026-10-05 · Median 24 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 24

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0524
2026-10-0424
2026-10-0324
2026-09-3024
2026-09-2924
2026-09-2524
2026-09-2424
2026-09-2224
2026-09-2124
2026-09-1924
2026-09-1824
2026-09-1724
2026-09-1624
2026-09-1523.5
2026-09-1423.5
2026-09-0923.5
2026-09-0621.4
2026-09-0521.4
2026-09-0321.4
2026-09-0221.4