Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Fernando Estrella

SF · DSL · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

Rank#6,229
Score15.7
Baseline24
Signal-13.3
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline24
Ceiling37
Confidence37 Risk79 Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Player profile

Fernando Estrella

SF · DSL · P

San Francisco Giants · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

PB Rank#6,229
Prospect Score15.7
Median24
Performance Signal-13.3
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
202437
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 25 Latest recorded 24
29 24.5 20 2026-08-16 · Median 25 2026-08-17 · Median 25 2026-08-18 · Median 25 2026-08-19 · Median 25 2026-08-20 · Median 24 2026-08-22 · Median 24 2026-08-23 · Median 24 2026-08-25 · Median 24 2026-08-27 · Median 24 2026-08-28 · Median 24 2026-09-01 · Median 24 2026-09-02 · Median 24 2026-09-03 · Median 24 2026-09-05 · Median 24 2026-09-06 · Median 24 2026-09-09 · Median 24.1 2026-09-14 · Median 24.1 2026-09-15 · Median 24.1 2026-09-16 · Median 24 2026-09-17 · Median 24 2026-09-18 · Median 24 2026-09-19 · Median 24 2026-09-21 · Median 24 2026-09-22 · Median 24 2026-09-24 · Median 24 2026-09-25 · Median 24 2026-09-29 · Median 24 2026-09-30 · Median 24 2026-10-03 · Median 24 2026-10-04 · Median 24 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 24

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0424
2026-10-0324
2026-09-3024
2026-09-2924
2026-09-2524
2026-09-2424
2026-09-2224
2026-09-2124
2026-09-1924
2026-09-1824
2026-09-1724
2026-09-1624
2026-09-1524.1
2026-09-1424.1
2026-09-0924.1
2026-09-0624
2026-09-0524
2026-09-0324
2026-09-0224
2026-09-0124
2026-08-2824
2026-08-2724
2026-08-2524
2026-08-2324
2026-08-2224
2026-08-2024
2026-08-1925
2026-08-1825
2026-08-1725
2026-08-1625

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 37
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 79
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
202437
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -13.3

Profile Context

RiskHigh Risk · 79
Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Confidence37
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusInsufficient current-season sample

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.