Justin Gonzales
Player Assessment
Current model readThe clearest reason to pay attention to Justin Gonzales is the separation between what was expected and what he is currently producing. The 64 Performance Grade sits 9 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.
Prospect Score & Development
Solid composite evaluation
Baseline
Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.
Confidence
High confidence
Evidence strength, separate from model risk.
Performance context
Model-derived assessmentSolid current production
Scouting Profile
20–80 scouting scaleGrades updated 2026-09-21
Supporting Evidence and What to Watch
Current model assessmentSupporting Evidence
The projection centers on 76, bounded by a 58 Floor and 79 Ceiling. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.
What to Watch
The development advantage is already being rewarded, so the next question is how well the skills travel upward. At AA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.
Model factors and risk context
Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.
Projected Outcome Range
These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.
Forecast
Statistical projectionsNo statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.
Development Trajectory
Recorded Baseline assessmentsLatest recorded Baseline: 76 on · Current Floor 58, Baseline 76, Ceiling 79
The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.
View recorded values
| Date | Baseline | Model version |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-09 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-07 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-05 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-04 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-03 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-30 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-29 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-22 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-21 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-19 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-18 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-17 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-16 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-15 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-14 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-09 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-06 | 76 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-05 | 76 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-03 | 76 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-02 | 77 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-01 | 80 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-28 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-27 | 81 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-25 | 81 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-08-23 | 81 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-22 | 81 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-20 | 81 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-24 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-23 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-22 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-21 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-16 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-14 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-12 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-11 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-09 | 69 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-07 | 69 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-05 | 69 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-03 | 69 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-01 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-30 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-29 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-28 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-26 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-25 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-24 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-23 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-22 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-21 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-20 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-19 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-18 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-17 | 70 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-16 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-15 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-14 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-13 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-12 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-11 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-10 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-09 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-08 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-07 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-06 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-05 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-04 | 70 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
Development Outlook
Upside and risk↑ Upside
The current Ceiling of 79 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.
⚑ Risk Factors
Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 94/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.