Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Garrison Sumner

BAL · FCL · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

Rank#5,501
Score24.0
Baseline30
Signal0.0
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline30
Ceiling42
Confidence22 Risk63 Model WatchDeveloping model read
Player profile

Garrison Sumner

BAL · FCL · P

Baltimore Orioles · Age at assessment: 22.7 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

PB Rank#5,501
Prospect Score24.0
Median30
Performance Signal0.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
203042
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal 0.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 30 Latest recorded 30
35 30.5 26 2026-08-20 · Median 30 2026-08-22 · Median 30 2026-08-23 · Median 30.3 2026-08-25 · Median 30.3 2026-08-27 · Median 30 2026-08-28 · Median 30 2026-09-01 · Median 30 2026-09-02 · Median 30 2026-09-03 · Median 30 2026-09-05 · Median 30 2026-09-06 · Median 30 2026-09-09 · Median 30 2026-09-14 · Median 30.3 2026-09-15 · Median 30 2026-09-16 · Median 30 2026-09-17 · Median 30 2026-09-18 · Median 30 2026-09-19 · Median 30 2026-09-21 · Median 30 2026-09-22 · Median 30 2026-09-24 · Median 30 2026-09-25 · Median 30 2026-09-29 · Median 30 2026-09-30 · Median 30 2026-10-03 · Median 30 2026-10-04 · Median 30 2026-08-20 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 30

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0430
2026-10-0330
2026-09-3030
2026-09-2930
2026-09-2530
2026-09-2430
2026-09-2230
2026-09-2130
2026-09-1930
2026-09-1830
2026-09-1730
2026-09-1630
2026-09-1530
2026-09-1430.3
2026-09-0930
2026-09-0630
2026-09-0530
2026-09-0330
2026-09-0230
2026-09-0130
2026-08-2830
2026-08-2730
2026-08-2530.3
2026-08-2330.3
2026-08-2230
2026-08-2030

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 22
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 63
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
203042
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal 0.0

Profile Context

RiskWide Range · 63
Model WatchDeveloping model read
Confidence22
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusInsufficient current-season sample

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.