Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Geremias Pena

ARI · DSL · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#4,011
Score34.0
Baseline36
Signal+6.1
Trend0.0
Floor25
Baseline36
Ceiling52
Confidence44 Risk74 Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Player profile

Geremias Pena

ARI · DSL · P

Arizona Diamondbacks · Age at assessment: 20.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#4,011
Prospect Score34.0
Median36
Performance Signal+6.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
253652
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +6.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 38 Latest recorded 36
42 37 32 2026-08-16 · Median 38 2026-08-17 · Median 38 2026-08-18 · Median 38 2026-08-19 · Median 37 2026-08-20 · Median 37 2026-08-22 · Median 37 2026-08-23 · Median 37.4 2026-08-25 · Median 37.4 2026-08-27 · Median 37 2026-08-28 · Median 37 2026-09-01 · Median 37 2026-09-02 · Median 37 2026-09-03 · Median 37 2026-09-05 · Median 37 2026-09-06 · Median 37 2026-09-09 · Median 37 2026-09-14 · Median 36.8 2026-09-15 · Median 37 2026-09-16 · Median 37 2026-09-17 · Median 37 2026-09-18 · Median 37 2026-09-19 · Median 37 2026-09-21 · Median 37 2026-09-22 · Median 37 2026-09-24 · Median 36 2026-09-25 · Median 36 2026-09-29 · Median 36 2026-09-30 · Median 36 2026-10-03 · Median 36 2026-10-04 · Median 36 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 36

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0436
2026-10-0336
2026-09-3036
2026-09-2936
2026-09-2536
2026-09-2436
2026-09-2237
2026-09-2137
2026-09-1937
2026-09-1837
2026-09-1737
2026-09-1637
2026-09-1537
2026-09-1436.8
2026-09-0937
2026-09-0637
2026-09-0537
2026-09-0337
2026-09-0237
2026-09-0137
2026-08-2837
2026-08-2737
2026-08-2537.4
2026-08-2337.4
2026-08-2237
2026-08-2037
2026-08-1937
2026-08-1838
2026-08-1738
2026-08-1638

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 44
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 74
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
253652
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +6.1

Profile Context

RiskWide Range · 74
Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Confidence44
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection45.8
Projected range21–71
Arrival probability1%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.