Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Graysen Tarlow

STL · AAA · C

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,151
Score54.5
Baseline51
Signal-11.9
Trend0.0
Floor44
Baseline51
Ceiling57
Confidence63 Risk0 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Graysen Tarlow

STL · AAA · C

St. Louis Cardinals · Age at assessment: 25.2 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,151
Prospect Score54.5
Median51
Performance Signal-11.9
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
445157
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -11.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 44 Latest recorded 51
57 48.5 40 2026-08-16 · Median 44 2026-08-17 · Median 44 2026-08-18 · Median 44 2026-08-19 · Median 44 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 53 2026-08-23 · Median 50 2026-08-25 · Median 50 2026-08-27 · Median 50 2026-08-28 · Median 50 2026-09-01 · Median 50 2026-09-02 · Median 50 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 52 2026-09-06 · Median 52 2026-09-09 · Median 50 2026-09-14 · Median 49.6 2026-09-15 · Median 50 2026-09-16 · Median 50 2026-09-17 · Median 50 2026-09-18 · Median 50 2026-09-19 · Median 50 2026-09-21 · Median 51 2026-09-22 · Median 51 2026-09-24 · Median 51 2026-09-25 · Median 51 2026-09-29 · Median 51 2026-09-30 · Median 51 2026-10-03 · Median 51 2026-10-04 · Median 51 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 51

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0451
2026-10-0351
2026-09-3051
2026-09-2951
2026-09-2551
2026-09-2451
2026-09-2251
2026-09-2151
2026-09-1950
2026-09-1850
2026-09-1750
2026-09-1650
2026-09-1550
2026-09-1449.6
2026-09-0950
2026-09-0652
2026-09-0552
2026-09-0352
2026-09-0250
2026-09-0150
2026-08-2850
2026-08-2750
2026-08-2550
2026-08-2350
2026-08-2253
2026-08-2053
2026-08-1944
2026-08-1844
2026-08-1744
2026-08-1644

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 63
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
445157
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -11.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence63
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.7
Projected range20–54
Arrival probability14%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.