Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Grayson Grinsell

DET · Single-A · P

Detroit Tigers · Age at assessment: 22.6 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Tools Translating
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Pitch quality translating

Current bat-missing results are broadly aligned with the verified pitch-quality expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#2,224
Prospect Score46
Median44
Performance39
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 60; dominance evidence sits near the 62th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 10.3

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-5.2 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 62
Command-3.8 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 55

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 45 Latest recorded 44
51 44 37 2026-06-04 · Median 45 2026-06-05 · Median 45 2026-06-06 · Median 43 2026-06-07 · Median 43 2026-06-08 · Median 43 2026-06-09 · Median 43 2026-06-10 · Median 42 2026-06-11 · Median 41 2026-06-12 · Median 41 2026-06-13 · Median 41 2026-06-14 · Median 41 2026-06-15 · Median 41 2026-06-16 · Median 41 2026-06-17 · Median 41 2026-06-18 · Median 41 2026-06-19 · Median 41 2026-06-20 · Median 41 2026-06-21 · Median 41 2026-06-22 · Median 41 2026-06-23 · Median 41 2026-06-24 · Median 41 2026-06-25 · Median 41 2026-06-26 · Median 41 2026-06-28 · Median 41 2026-06-29 · Median 41 2026-06-30 · Median 41 2026-07-01 · Median 41 2026-07-03 · Median 44 2026-07-05 · Median 47 2026-07-07 · Median 47 2026-07-09 · Median 47 2026-07-11 · Median 47 2026-07-12 · Median 47 2026-07-14 · Median 47 2026-07-16 · Median 47 2026-07-21 · Median 47 2026-07-22 · Median 47 2026-07-23 · Median 46 2026-07-24 · Median 46 2026-07-25 · Median 46 2026-07-26 · Median 46 2026-07-27 · Median 46 2026-07-28 · Median 46 2026-07-29 · Median 46 2026-07-30 · Median 46 2026-07-31 · Median 46 2026-08-01 · Median 46 2026-08-03 · Median 46 2026-08-05 · Median 46 2026-08-07 · Median 46 2026-08-08 · Median 46 2026-08-09 · Median 46 2026-08-10 · Median 46 2026-08-11 · Median 46 2026-08-13 · Median 46 2026-08-14 · Median 43 2026-08-16 · Median 44 2026-08-17 · Median 44 2026-08-18 · Median 44 2026-08-19 · Median 44 2026-08-20 · Median 44 2026-08-22 · Median 44 2026-08-23 · Median 44.4 2026-08-25 · Median 44.4 2026-08-27 · Median 44 2026-08-28 · Median 44 2026-09-01 · Median 44 2026-09-02 · Median 44 2026-09-03 · Median 44 2026-09-05 · Median 44 2026-09-06 · Median 44 2026-09-09 · Median 43 2026-09-14 · Median 43.6 2026-09-15 · Median 44 2026-09-16 · Median 44 2026-09-17 · Median 44 2026-09-18 · Median 44 2026-09-19 · Median 44 2026-09-21 · Median 44 2026-09-22 · Median 44 2026-09-24 · Median 44 2026-09-25 · Median 44 2026-06-04 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 44

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2544
2026-09-2444
2026-09-2244
2026-09-2144
2026-09-1944
2026-09-1844
2026-09-1744
2026-09-1644
2026-09-1544
2026-09-1443.6
2026-09-0943
2026-09-0644
2026-09-0544
2026-09-0344
2026-09-0244
2026-09-0144
2026-08-2844
2026-08-2744
2026-08-2544.4
2026-08-2344.4
2026-08-2244
2026-08-2044
2026-08-1944
2026-08-1844
2026-08-1744
2026-08-1644
2026-08-1443
2026-08-1346
2026-08-1146
2026-08-1046
2026-08-0946
2026-08-0846
2026-08-0746
2026-08-0546
2026-08-0346
2026-08-0146
2026-07-3146
2026-07-3046
2026-07-2946
2026-07-2846
2026-07-2746
2026-07-2646
2026-07-2546
2026-07-2446
2026-07-2346
2026-07-2247
2026-07-2147
2026-07-1647
2026-07-1447
2026-07-1247
2026-07-1147
2026-07-0947
2026-07-0747
2026-07-0547
2026-07-0344
2026-07-0141
2026-06-3041
2026-06-2941
2026-06-2841
2026-06-2641
2026-06-2541
2026-06-2441
2026-06-2341
2026-06-2241
2026-06-2141
2026-06-2041
2026-06-1941
2026-06-1841
2026-06-1741
2026-06-1641
2026-06-1541
2026-06-1441
2026-06-1341
2026-06-1241
2026-06-1141
2026-06-1042
2026-06-0943
2026-06-0843
2026-06-0743
2026-06-0643
2026-06-0545
2026-06-0445

Metrics to follow

K/9 10.3

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 14.1%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.6

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G21
IP74.0
ERA5.23
WHIP1.53
K/910.3
BB/94.6
K-BB%14.1%

Lakeland Flying Tigers · Single-A · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
384449
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 39

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 26
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence87
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production46.5
Historical 80% error band22–71
MLB arrival in 3 years7%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball45Fringe
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup60Above Avg
Command icon
Control55Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Changeup Feel

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels0110.801003.14442221.805.40
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Lakeland Flying TigersSingle-A655.232112074.07548431138851.5310.34

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-22T00:11:19.

More Detroit Tigers profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.