Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Herick Hernandez

ATL · AAA · P · Age 23

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score67.4#277 Overall
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Performance54Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor59Lower-end outcome
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Ceiling68High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
54Developing performance profile
Miss ability11.6 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command6.4 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.49 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball50
Slider60
Curveball50
Control40

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh94How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection40.4
Projected Range16–65
Arrival Probability44%
Productive Role Probability7%
Player Background
OrganizationAtlanta Braves
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 57 Latest recorded 63
67 60 53 2026-09-02 · Median 57 2026-09-03 · Median 57 2026-09-05 · Median 57 2026-09-06 · Median 57 2026-09-09 · Median 62 2026-09-14 · Median 62.3 2026-09-15 · Median 62 2026-09-16 · Median 62 2026-09-17 · Median 62 2026-09-18 · Median 62 2026-09-19 · Median 62 2026-09-21 · Median 62 2026-09-22 · Median 62 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-09-29 · Median 63 2026-09-30 · Median 63 2026-10-03 · Median 63 2026-10-04 · Median 63 2026-10-05 · Median 63 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 63

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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