Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Nathan Flewelling

TB · High-A · C

Tampa Bay Rays · Age at assessment: 19.9 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Game power ahead of the tool grade

Current extra-base impact is outperforming the verified power expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#142
Prospect Score72
Median69
Performance58
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Power 55; game-power evidence sits near the 80th percentile for comparable players
  • ISO is 0.208

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Contact-2.9 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 47
Game Power+21.2 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 80

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 73 Latest recorded 69
77 71 65 2026-06-04 · Median 73 2026-06-05 · Median 71 2026-06-06 · Median 71 2026-06-07 · Median 70 2026-06-08 · Median 70 2026-06-09 · Median 70 2026-06-10 · Median 70 2026-06-11 · Median 70 2026-06-12 · Median 70 2026-06-13 · Median 70 2026-06-14 · Median 70 2026-06-15 · Median 70 2026-06-16 · Median 70 2026-06-17 · Median 70 2026-06-18 · Median 70 2026-06-19 · Median 70 2026-06-20 · Median 70 2026-06-21 · Median 71 2026-06-22 · Median 71 2026-06-23 · Median 71 2026-06-24 · Median 71 2026-06-25 · Median 71 2026-06-26 · Median 70 2026-06-28 · Median 71 2026-06-29 · Median 72 2026-06-30 · Median 72 2026-07-01 · Median 71 2026-07-03 · Median 71 2026-07-05 · Median 73 2026-07-07 · Median 73 2026-07-09 · Median 73 2026-07-11 · Median 72 2026-07-12 · Median 72 2026-07-14 · Median 72 2026-07-16 · Median 72 2026-07-21 · Median 71 2026-07-22 · Median 71 2026-07-23 · Median 70 2026-07-24 · Median 70 2026-07-25 · Median 70 2026-07-26 · Median 70 2026-07-27 · Median 70 2026-07-28 · Median 70 2026-07-29 · Median 70 2026-07-30 · Median 70 2026-07-31 · Median 70 2026-08-01 · Median 70 2026-08-03 · Median 70 2026-08-05 · Median 70 2026-08-07 · Median 70 2026-08-08 · Median 70 2026-08-09 · Median 70 2026-08-10 · Median 70 2026-08-11 · Median 70 2026-08-13 · Median 69 2026-08-14 · Median 70 2026-08-16 · Median 70 2026-08-17 · Median 70 2026-08-18 · Median 70 2026-08-19 · Median 70 2026-08-20 · Median 70 2026-08-22 · Median 70 2026-08-23 · Median 69.5 2026-08-25 · Median 69.5 2026-08-27 · Median 70 2026-08-28 · Median 70 2026-09-01 · Median 70 2026-09-02 · Median 70 2026-09-03 · Median 70 2026-09-05 · Median 70 2026-09-06 · Median 70 2026-09-09 · Median 69 2026-09-14 · Median 69.5 2026-09-15 · Median 69 2026-09-16 · Median 69 2026-09-17 · Median 69 2026-09-18 · Median 69 2026-09-19 · Median 69 2026-09-21 · Median 69 2026-09-22 · Median 69 2026-09-24 · Median 69 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 69

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2469
2026-09-2269
2026-09-2169
2026-09-1969
2026-09-1869
2026-09-1769
2026-09-1669
2026-09-1569
2026-09-1469.5
2026-09-0969
2026-09-0670
2026-09-0570
2026-09-0370
2026-09-0270
2026-09-0170
2026-08-2870
2026-08-2770
2026-08-2569.5
2026-08-2369.5
2026-08-2270
2026-08-2070
2026-08-1970
2026-08-1870
2026-08-1770
2026-08-1670
2026-08-1470
2026-08-1369
2026-08-1170
2026-08-1070
2026-08-0970
2026-08-0870
2026-08-0770
2026-08-0570
2026-08-0370
2026-08-0170
2026-07-3170
2026-07-3070
2026-07-2970
2026-07-2870
2026-07-2770
2026-07-2670
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2026-07-2171
2026-07-1672
2026-07-1472
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2026-07-0973
2026-07-0773
2026-07-0573
2026-07-0371
2026-07-0171
2026-06-3072
2026-06-2972
2026-06-2871
2026-06-2670
2026-06-2571
2026-06-2471
2026-06-2371
2026-06-2271
2026-06-2171
2026-06-2070
2026-06-1970
2026-06-1870
2026-06-1770
2026-06-1670
2026-06-1570
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2026-06-1370
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2026-06-1070
2026-06-0970
2026-06-0870
2026-06-0770
2026-06-0671
2026-06-0571
2026-06-0473

Metrics to follow

ISO 0.208

Separates extra-base impact from batting average

Definition

Isolated power, calculated as slugging percentage minus batting average

SLG 0.452

Tracks total bases per at-bat

Definition

Slugging percentage, weighting extra-base hits more heavily

K% 27.2%

Shows the swing-and-miss cost of accessing power

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Lower is generally better for hitters

Next checkpointRecheck ISO, SLG, and K% after the next 75 plate appearances

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G106
PA486
AVG.243
OBP.364
SLG.452
OPS.816
HR21
SB8
BB%14.6%
K%27.2%

Bowling Green Hot Rods · High-A · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
646975
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 58

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 3
MLB / Model WatchMLB #64 MLB Top 100
Confidence92
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production43.1
Historical 80% error band28–59
MLB arrival in 3 years53%
Productive MLB role in 3 years11%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Hit icon
Hit50Avg
Power icon
Power55Avg
Speed icon
Speed35Developmental
Defense icon
Defense50Avg
Arm icon
Arm50Avg
Overall icon
Overall55Avg

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileHitPowerSpeedDefenseArm20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Position Player

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels62523383001260.348.400.478.878
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Bowling Green Hot RodsHigh-A10648640368981722167711328.243.364.452.816
2025Bowling Green Hot RodsHigh-A52216241103560.250.409.438.847
2025Charleston RiverDogsSingle-A1024393364677161649891219.229.393.336.729
20252 teams · TotalAll levels1074613524881172652941279.230.393.341.734

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2024 Bowman Draft · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Tampa Bay Rays profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.