Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jack Cebert

WSH · AAA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score66.7#302 Overall
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Performance57Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor57Lower-end outcome
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Ceiling65High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
57Solid current performance
Miss ability10.0 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command3.5 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management1.2 HR/9Near expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball50
Slider55
Curveball50
Control50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh89How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection47.8
Projected Range25–71
Arrival Probability57%
Productive Role Probability9%
Player Background
OrganizationWashington Nationals
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 55 Latest recorded 61
67 58 49 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 63 2026-09-14 · Median 62.7 2026-09-15 · Median 63 2026-09-16 · Median 63 2026-09-17 · Median 61 2026-09-18 · Median 61 2026-09-19 · Median 61 2026-09-21 · Median 61 2026-09-22 · Median 61 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 61 2026-09-30 · Median 61 2026-10-03 · Median 61 2026-10-04 · Median 61 2026-10-05 · Median 61 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 61

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0561
2026-10-0461
2026-10-0361
2026-09-3061
2026-09-2961
2026-09-2557
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2026-09-2161
2026-09-1961
2026-09-1861
2026-09-1761
2026-09-1663
2026-09-1563
2026-09-1462.7
2026-09-0963
2026-09-0653
2026-09-0553
2026-09-0353
2026-09-0255