Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jacob Hartlaub

TB · High-A · P · Age 24

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score47.3#2,035 Overall
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Performance43Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor38Lower-end outcome
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Ceiling54High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
43Developing performance profile
Miss ability10.1 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command3.5 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management1.5 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid58How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection47.8
Projected Range23–73
Arrival Probability7%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationTampa Bay Rays
LevelHigh-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 40 Latest recorded 45
50 43 36 2026-09-02 · Median 40 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 45.6 2026-09-15 · Median 46 2026-09-16 · Median 46 2026-09-17 · Median 46 2026-09-18 · Median 46 2026-09-19 · Median 46 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 45 2026-09-25 · Median 45 2026-09-29 · Median 45 2026-09-30 · Median 45 2026-10-03 · Median 45 2026-10-04 · Median 45 2026-10-05 · Median 45 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 45

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0545
2026-10-0445
2026-10-0345
2026-09-3045
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2026-09-2146
2026-09-1946
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2026-09-1746
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2026-09-1546
2026-09-1445.6
2026-09-0946
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0240