Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Jacob Roberts

WSH · High-A · P

Washington Nationals · Age at assessment: 24.8 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#1,338
Prospect Score52.7
Median51
Performance Signal+16.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
435159
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +16.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 43 Latest recorded 51
55 47 39 2026-08-14 · Median 43 2026-08-16 · Median 43 2026-08-17 · Median 43 2026-08-18 · Median 43 2026-08-19 · Median 43 2026-08-20 · Median 44 2026-08-22 · Median 44 2026-08-23 · Median 43.9 2026-08-25 · Median 43.9 2026-08-27 · Median 45 2026-08-28 · Median 45 2026-09-01 · Median 45 2026-09-02 · Median 45 2026-09-03 · Median 45 2026-09-05 · Median 45 2026-09-06 · Median 45 2026-09-09 · Median 51 2026-09-14 · Median 50.7 2026-09-15 · Median 51 2026-09-16 · Median 51 2026-09-17 · Median 51 2026-09-18 · Median 51 2026-09-19 · Median 51 2026-09-21 · Median 51 2026-09-22 · Median 51 2026-09-24 · Median 51 2026-09-25 · Median 51 2026-09-29 · Median 51 2026-09-30 · Median 51 2026-10-03 · Median 51 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 51

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0351
2026-09-3051
2026-09-2951
2026-09-2551
2026-09-2451
2026-09-2251
2026-09-2151
2026-09-1951
2026-09-1851
2026-09-1751
2026-09-1651
2026-09-1551
2026-09-1450.7
2026-09-0951
2026-09-0645
2026-09-0545
2026-09-0345
2026-09-0245
2026-09-0145
2026-08-2845
2026-08-2745
2026-08-2543.9
2026-08-2343.9
2026-08-2244
2026-08-2044
2026-08-1943
2026-08-1843
2026-08-1743
2026-08-1643
2026-08-1443

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 57
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 24
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
435159
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +16.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 24
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence57
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection53.8
Projected range29–79
Arrival probability19%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.