Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jagger Beck

HOU · Single-A · P · Age 20

Bats S · Throws R
Prospect Score66.6#310 Overall
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Performance63Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Ceiling70High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
63Solid current performance
Miss ability10.6 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command4.0 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management0.2 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid63How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh3Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection50.9
Projected Range30–72
Arrival Probability23%
Productive Role Probability3%
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelSingle-A
PositionP
BatsS
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 63
68 63.5 59 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 63 2026-09-14 · Median 63.1 2026-09-15 · Median 63 2026-09-16 · Median 63 2026-09-17 · Median 63 2026-09-18 · Median 63 2026-09-19 · Median 63 2026-09-21 · Median 63 2026-09-22 · Median 63 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-09-29 · Median 63 2026-09-30 · Median 63 2026-10-03 · Median 63 2026-10-04 · Median 63 2026-10-05 · Median 63 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 63

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0563
2026-10-0463
2026-10-0363
2026-09-3063
2026-09-2963
2026-09-2563
2026-09-2463
2026-09-2263
2026-09-2163
2026-09-1963
2026-09-1863
2026-09-1763
2026-09-1663
2026-09-1563
2026-09-1463.1
2026-09-0963
2026-09-0663
2026-09-0563
2026-09-0363
2026-09-0263