Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Jesus Chavez

TEX · DSL · OF

Texas Rangers · Age at assessment: 17.7 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,957
Prospect Score48.0
Median46
Performance Signal+10.5
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
374655
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.5

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 46
51 46.5 42 2026-08-14 · Median 46 2026-08-16 · Median 46 2026-08-17 · Median 46 2026-08-18 · Median 46 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46.6 2026-08-25 · Median 46.6 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 47 2026-09-01 · Median 47 2026-09-02 · Median 47 2026-09-03 · Median 47 2026-09-05 · Median 47 2026-09-06 · Median 47 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 46.4 2026-09-15 · Median 46 2026-09-16 · Median 46 2026-09-17 · Median 46 2026-09-18 · Median 46 2026-09-19 · Median 46 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 46 2026-09-25 · Median 46 2026-09-29 · Median 46 2026-09-30 · Median 46 2026-10-03 · Median 46 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 46

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0346
2026-09-3046
2026-09-2946
2026-09-2546
2026-09-2446
2026-09-2246
2026-09-2146
2026-09-1946
2026-09-1846
2026-09-1746
2026-09-1646
2026-09-1546
2026-09-1446.4
2026-09-0946
2026-09-0647
2026-09-0547
2026-09-0347
2026-09-0247
2026-09-0147
2026-08-2847
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2546.6
2026-08-2346.6
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1946
2026-08-1846
2026-08-1746
2026-08-1646
2026-08-1446

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 50
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 24
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
374655
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.5

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 24
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence50
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection40.8
Projected range23–59
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.