Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Jhonayker Ugarte

KC · Single-A · SS

Kansas City Royals · Age at assessment: 19.6 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,156
Prospect Score54.5
Median51
Performance Signal-2.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
445159
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -2.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 51
62 52 42 2026-08-14 · Median 46 2026-08-16 · Median 46 2026-08-17 · Median 46 2026-08-18 · Median 46 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 58 2026-08-22 · Median 58 2026-08-23 · Median 57.6 2026-08-25 · Median 57 2026-08-27 · Median 57 2026-08-28 · Median 57 2026-09-01 · Median 57 2026-09-02 · Median 57 2026-09-03 · Median 57 2026-09-05 · Median 57 2026-09-06 · Median 57 2026-09-09 · Median 52 2026-09-14 · Median 51.7 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 52 2026-09-19 · Median 52 2026-09-21 · Median 52 2026-09-22 · Median 52 2026-09-24 · Median 52 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 51 2026-09-30 · Median 51 2026-10-03 · Median 51 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 51

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0351
2026-09-3051
2026-09-2951
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2452
2026-09-2252
2026-09-2152
2026-09-1952
2026-09-1852
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1451.7
2026-09-0952
2026-09-0657
2026-09-0557
2026-09-0357
2026-09-0257
2026-09-0157
2026-08-2857
2026-08-2757
2026-08-2557
2026-08-2357.6
2026-08-2258
2026-08-2058
2026-08-1946
2026-08-1846
2026-08-1746
2026-08-1646
2026-08-1446

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 58
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 3
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
445159
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -2.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 3
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence58
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection31.8
Projected range13–50
Arrival probability4%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.