Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Joey Mancini

HOU · AAA · P · Age 27

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score33.0#4,153 Overall
Baseline34Most likely outcome
Performance39Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor27Lower-end outcome
Baseline34Most likely outcome
Ceiling41High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
39Developing performance profile
Miss ability9.4 K/9Near expected range
Command4.5 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.57 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid61How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskSolid32Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection39.7
Projected Range15–65
Arrival Probability17%
Productive Role Probability3%
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 24 Latest recorded 34 Change +10.2
40 29.5 19 2026-09-02 · Median 23.8 2026-09-03 · Median 23.8 2026-09-05 · Median 23.8 2026-09-06 · Median 23.8 2026-09-09 · Median 31 2026-09-14 · Median 30.2 2026-09-15 · Median 36 2026-09-16 · Median 36 2026-09-17 · Median 35 2026-09-18 · Median 35 2026-09-19 · Median 35 2026-09-21 · Median 34 2026-09-22 · Median 34 2026-09-24 · Median 34 2026-09-25 · Median 34 2026-09-29 · Median 34 2026-09-30 · Median 34 2026-10-03 · Median 34 2026-10-04 · Median 34 2026-10-05 · Median 34 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 34

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0534
2026-10-0434
2026-10-0334
2026-09-3034
2026-09-2934
2026-09-2534
2026-09-2434
2026-09-2234
2026-09-2134
2026-09-1935
2026-09-1835
2026-09-1735
2026-09-1636
2026-09-1536
2026-09-1430.2
2026-09-0931
2026-09-0623.8
2026-09-0523.8
2026-09-0323.8
2026-09-0223.8