Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Johanfran Garcia

BOS · AA · C · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score65.4#364 Overall
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Performance51Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Ceiling65High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
51Developing performance profile
Power.209 ISOAbove-average game power
Contact29.6% KContact risk
Approach6.3% BBNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit40
Power50
Run20
Field50
Arm55

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh93How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection32.7
Projected Range15–50
Arrival Probability44%
Productive Role Probability6%
Player Background
OrganizationBoston Red Sox
LevelAA
PositionC
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 62 Latest recorded 61
66 61 56 2026-09-02 · Median 62 2026-09-03 · Median 62 2026-09-05 · Median 62 2026-09-06 · Median 62 2026-09-09 · Median 62 2026-09-14 · Median 60.9 2026-09-15 · Median 61 2026-09-16 · Median 61 2026-09-17 · Median 61 2026-09-18 · Median 61 2026-09-19 · Median 61 2026-09-21 · Median 61 2026-09-22 · Median 61 2026-09-24 · Median 61 2026-09-25 · Median 61 2026-09-29 · Median 61 2026-09-30 · Median 61 2026-10-03 · Median 61 2026-10-04 · Median 61 2026-10-05 · Median 61 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 61

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0561
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2026-09-1460.9
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2026-09-0562
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