Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Joniel Hernandez

SF · DSL · SS · Age 18

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score66.0#337 Overall
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Performance66Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Ceiling68High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
66Solid current performance
Offensive impact.978 OPSStrong overall offensive impact
Contact15.5% KStrong contact signal
Approach16.8% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit45
Power50
Run60
Field50
Arm55

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh85How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh24Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection53.1
Projected Range35–72
Arrival Probability33%
Productive Role Probability13%
Player Background
OrganizationSan Francisco Giants
LevelDSL
PositionSS
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 62 Latest recorded 62
67 62.5 58 2026-09-02 · Median 62 2026-09-03 · Median 62 2026-09-05 · Median 62 2026-09-06 · Median 62 2026-09-09 · Median 62 2026-09-14 · Median 62.3 2026-09-15 · Median 62 2026-09-16 · Median 62 2026-09-17 · Median 62 2026-09-18 · Median 62 2026-09-19 · Median 62 2026-09-21 · Median 62 2026-09-22 · Median 62 2026-09-24 · Median 62 2026-09-25 · Median 62 2026-09-29 · Median 62 2026-09-30 · Median 62 2026-10-03 · Median 62 2026-10-04 · Median 62 2026-10-05 · Median 62 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 62

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0562
2026-10-0462
2026-10-0362
2026-09-3062
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2026-09-0962
2026-09-0662
2026-09-0562
2026-09-0362
2026-09-0262