Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Jose Zerpa

SEA · Single-A · P

Seattle Mariners · Age at assessment: 21.9 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Lower confidence keeps the composite more conservative.

PB Rank#1,496
Prospect Score51.6
Median49
Performance Signal+5.4
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
404961
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 49 Latest recorded 49
54 49.5 45 2026-08-27 · Median 49 2026-08-28 · Median 49 2026-09-01 · Median 49 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 49 2026-09-14 · Median 49.5 2026-09-15 · Median 49 2026-09-16 · Median 49 2026-09-17 · Median 49 2026-09-18 · Median 49 2026-09-19 · Median 49 2026-09-21 · Median 49 2026-09-22 · Median 49 2026-09-24 · Median 49 2026-09-25 · Median 49 2026-09-29 · Median 49 2026-09-30 · Median 49 2026-10-03 · Median 49 2026-08-27 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 49

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0349
2026-09-3049
2026-09-2949
2026-09-2549
2026-09-2449
2026-09-2249
2026-09-2149
2026-09-1949
2026-09-1849
2026-09-1749
2026-09-1649
2026-09-1549
2026-09-1449.5
2026-09-0949
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249
2026-09-0149
2026-08-2849
2026-08-2749

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 48
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 22
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
404961
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 22
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence48
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection48.8
Projected range24–74
Arrival probability1%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.